The great Jim O’Neill, (now Baron O’Neill of Gatley) a British economist best known for coining the acronym ‘BRICs’ in 2001 (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) once said that the only two things that really matter in determining the potential economic growth of any country are ‘the two Ps’: People and Productivity.
His logic was that if you have a large population and you can make and keep everyone motivated and productive, you will inevitably become an economic force to reckon with, and this was part of his logic in highlighting the new rapidly industrialising countries of the future.
However, whilst maintaining productivity depends on the quality, integrity and ability of political leaders to steer the economy forward and avoid mistakes (which can be highly unpredictable, as has been seen over the past 20 years), population growth depends on a wide range of factors, not only related to Government policies.
A quick glance at this enlightening infographic “Where will the next 1000 babies be born” tells you everything you need to know about where population growth is coming from in the future.
This is a strong (but not only) indicator of future economic growth. However, provided their leaders can navigate global challenges and focus on productivity, there can be little doubt that the countries shown in blue and green are the ones to watch in the future.
By: David Thomas, China Expert, ChinaInvest
